COVID-19 Skagit County Cases: Epidemiologic Curve Progression

The first COVID-19 case in Skagit County was confirmed Feb. 21. Significant growth in COVID-19 cases were documented February 21-March 18, with cases doubling every four days, on average. The Skagit Valley Chorale practice was March 10. By April 1, 45 of the 56 attendees were diagnosed with COVID-19 or were ill with the symptoms. At least three have been hospitalized and two are dead. The Chorale was a classic cluster.

That four week period the growth was exponential, that is it doubled in size on a regular basis.

If that exponential growth rate of doubling every four days had continued. There...