County ‘in trouble’ with rising COVID-19 cases

“Skagit County, we’re in trouble. COVID-19 cases are rising at an alarming rate, and we need your help to reverse the trend and keep us out of major trouble.” That is Skagit Health Officer Dr. Leibrand’s first sentence in an Oct. 8 Skagit County press release with the title phrase “startling upward tick in COVID-19 cases.”

This is a drastic turnaround from an Oct. 5 statement when new cases were dropping toward a bi-weekly total of 25 per 100,000 residents, the metric for advancing in the state’s Safe Start: Reopening Washington plan

“Our rates are going up dramatically with 27 confirmed cases and many more probable cases in the last few days alone. At this rate of increase, we will soon be over 75 cases per two weeks per 100,000 population and back in the high-risk category. We are also seeing more hospital admission and ventilator usage recently,” Leibrand noted Oct. 8.

Skagit Public Health recorded 36 cases last week, Oct. 4-10 and 60 positive test in the 14 day period, Sept 27-Oct 10. Skagit County was tracked as having 35.6 positive cases per 100,000 residents and averaging testing 188 people daily per 100,000 residents in the Oct. 8 state data report. Testing results for the county and state lag days behind the posting dates.

Leibrand Sunday night said the health department “wanted to get on top of it right away, jump on it put the alarm out,” noting another lag, between the time a person is exposed to the coronavirus and the days it may take before symptoms appear.

Talking with the Weekly News on the phone, Leibrand emphasized that “superspreaders really drive this epidemic,” speaking about Skagit County, not President Trump. Skagit Public’s Health analysis, he said, is that “the majority of our cases are coming from family gatherings, small social gatherings and small work places. You will see 25 contacts coming out of a situation where someone was not being careful, they have a small business, an active social life and a big family and that ends up with 25 contacts. A single person exposes 25 persons. (He does) not just expose two people.”

In another case, “a person infected 25 people; they were the cause of transmission of a huge number of people. That changes the stats,” Leibrand said.

Leibrand is optimistic that in Skagit County “a small amount of vaccine in November” will be ready. “We don’t have to wait till a vaccine is approved for it to be distributed,” he said. There is a proposed distribution based on criteria developed defining “a logical hierarchy of vaccine distribution,” first for those with a high risk of acquiring infection because of their job or have a high risk of dying because of their health.

Leibrand estimates that it would take five months to inoculate most County residents. His formula: if 500 doses were given daily, every day, seven days a week. “It is not going to happen overnight,” he said.

He emphasized the vaccine will be safe, addressing fears of a politically motivated use of the vaccine. “Companies and health professionals are not going to distribute vaccine early because of political gain,” he said, and the public “does not have to be as concerned about that as people were six weeks ago.”