Local election totals by the numbers

Will there be any close races in November’s Skagit County elections? The closest primary result, County Commissioner’s Lisa Janicki’s 225 vote, 2.3 percentage margin in her district 3 position, was the biggest August surprise. Republican challenger Christian Burns will have to gain votes countrywide. This is the opposite of Republican Commissioner’s Ron Wesen’s 2020 victory against Mark Lundsten. The Democrat won that August’s primary. Lundsten was beaten by eastern county votes, swamped by then President Trump’s red tide turnout. Janicki is likely to gain votes in the more liberal western county municipalities.

First term Rep. Greg Gilday (R-Camano Island) has to overcome a 2,000 vote legislative district 10 primary defeat to keep his position 1 seat against first-time candidate Clyde Shavers of Oak Harbor. Shavers, a Navy veteran, Naval Academy graduate and new Yale Law School graduate won in one of few purple districts in the state, despite being outspent, though barely.

Gilday lost despite spending $121,171, $5 for each of the 24,165 cast for him. The state Republican party is spending heavily to win this seat, betting $21,373 on him.

Shavers spent $114,501, $4.40 for each of his 26,165 votes. Democratic allies added only $147 to his coffers.

Gilday won a close election in 2020 for the seat opened by then Rep. Norma Smith’s retirement.

The success of party activists in getting ballots cast for their candidates will determine victory in the Gilday-Shavers election.

Oak Harbor realtor Karen Lesetmoe has had most money poured into her race, $258,508. Over two-thirds, $176,062, has been funded by the state Republican Party and outside goups. It has cost $11.12 per vote for the 23,342 she received.

Spending for State Rep. Dave Paul (D-Oak Harbor) has been $211,761, of which $65.303 came from outside funding. Paul spent $146,458 directly on his campaign Each of his votes cost $7.67. The two-term incumbent won by over 4,000 votes.

Shavers’ 3,007 vote margin in Island County carried him to victory. That was a large buffer against the 2,088 vote deficit from the Snohomish County portion of the 10th district. His 1,081 vote margin in the Skagit County precincts in the district pushed his victory to 2,000 votes.

Paul won by 4,377 votes. His vote allocation mirrored Shavers but with larger margins against Lesetmoe, a first time candidate. Her 1,640-vote advantage in Snohomish County was erased and swamped by Paul’s 4,679 Island County vote advantage. He was up another 1,338 votes in Skagit County.

Island County has some 60% of the district’s voters, Snohomish County over 27% and Skagit County about 12.5%.

Paul and Shavers each won a higher percentage of votes in the seven La Conner School District precincts than countywide, Paul’s 67% here was 6.4% greater and Shavers’ 63% was 4.7% higher. Paul won 75.8% of La Conner’s vote and Shavers 72%. Paul also won over 70% of votes in the Swinomish and Snee Oosh precincts. Shavers won 70% in Swinomish. Their lowest percentages were Harmony precinct, at 57.3% for Paul, and Dodge Valley where Shavers won 52.7%

The local precincts are Dodge Valley, Harmony, La Conner, Shelter Bay, Snee Oosh, Swinomish and Whitney. They provide about 35% of Skagit County’s 10th district votes.

State Rep. Debra Lekanoff (D-Bow), representing the 40th district position 1, north of SR 20, won with 90.5% of the vote. The 9.3% write in votes in opposition were the largest percentage by far against candidates running unopposed.

County contests

Danny Hagen won convincingly, by 2,807 in his primary race against Karie Storle for county assessor. His $8,816 spent was a good investment at, $0.47 per vote. The race would have been closer if Storle spent money on it. She did not, according to Public Disclosure Commission records.

Skagit County Auditor Sandy Perkins was the most effective campaigner, spending less than ten cents per vote, $1,489 for 20,648 votes. Challenger Eric Hull spent almost three times as much, $4,267, or $0.27 for each of his 15,705 votes.