Town's sea level rise planning only a start

The high tide of last week’s Town of La Conner Planning Commission meeting on future sea level rise came when Assistant Planner Ajah Eills calmed the waters– make that, concerns– raised by troubling data gleaned from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“By 2070, if we do nothing,” Eills initially cautioned while sharing statistics, “the town will be underwater.”

She then offered solace.

“These are kind of scary numbers to look at,” she said, “but that’s without mitigation, without doing anything.”

Doing nothing, staff and commissioners agreed, is not an option.

Steps have already been taken to address climate change factors locally. Town planner Michael Davolio noted that the new Emergency Management Commission will address flood management and threats posed by earthquakes and tsunamis.

The new commissioners and Town Council have Eills’ report.

“As La Conner develops the best planning practice for managing the effects of the rising sea level locally,” Eills wrote, “it is important to understand how the regional sea level projections are linked to the coast-wide and global projections. This may help compensate for the potential variability of sea level rise and help design more accurate local methods for mitigating the effect of sea level rise in La Conner.”

La Conner has around three events of minor flooding per year. Data predict about 10 times more moderate flooding. In 2050 that could be four moderate flooding events per year.

“The December 2022 flood,” said Eills, “would be considered a major flood under this maxim. Major flooding will jump from about a four per cent yearly chance to a 20 per cent yearly chance by 2050. In 2060 and the following years, La Conner could expect to see a ‘December flood’ about once every two years and possibly more frequently.”

Commissioner Liz Theaker recalled that in 2017 La Conner hosted a regional design charette related to sea level rise was coordinated by then-town administrator John Doyle. She said scientists, environmentalists and business owners from throughout the Pacific Northwest generated multiple sea level rise adaptation strategies that day.

Some of those innovative concepts, many based upon European models – including designs for floating structures – were deemed too costly.

“I remember the design charette here in 2017,” said Commission Chair Carol Hedlin, “but we just couldn’t move it forward.”

Resident William Smith asked several insightful questions related to management and mitigation options.

Eills advocated collaboration with public works staff in assessing the storm drain and storm water management systems.

“NOAA does provide tools for this assessment,” said Eills, “which La Conner will use in connection with local experience and expertise.”

Despite the complex jargon, Eills said strategies and solutions will likely coalesce around the age-old remedy of preparation.

“The best way to reduce harm from extreme water levels,” she said, “is to plan extensively for sea level rise. High tide flooding is expected to rise in the coming years, with projections suggesting a doubling of its current rate by 2030.”

“There are no hard and fast answers to deal with sea level rise,” Eills noted. “If there was, someone would be a billionaire.”