Great weather, but a cloudy potato forecast

A bumper crop of Northwest potatoes in 2023 is driving the price of potatoes down, but John Thulen of Pioneer Potatoes is not worried – yet.

Many of the challenges cited in a March 31 Market Snapshot from AgWest Farm Credit (the new name of the former Northwest Farm Credit in Burlington) concern russet potatoes grown in Eastern Washington.

Thulen agrees that overproduction in 2023 has “plugged up” processors like McCain Food USA, whose enormous processing plant in Othello produces 15% of all the frozen French fries, hash browns and tater tots produced in the U.S. each year. Besides fries and potato chips, eight kinds of frozen mashed potatoes, including russets, roll off the line at the large Lamb Weston plant in Quincy.

Statewide, according to the USDA’s 2022 Washington Census of Agriculture, 146,471 of the 186,875 acres in potatoes were harvested for this kind of processing.

Skagit County potato farmers grow smaller, specialty potatoes – red, yellow, purple and fingerling. With only four of the county’s 41 potato farmers harvesting their crop for processing, Skagit County potatoes are more likely to turn up on the dinner table than in fast-food restaurants.

Local farmers tend to sell their crops directly to grocery store chains and some international outlets. Thulen prefers selling to medium-sized companies that buy potatoes in bags with a Pioneer Potatoes label. Larger chains “require you to put your potatoes in their package and even ship on pallets that belong to them,” he says.

West Coast stores are better than stores outside the region. “People don’t hear the words ‘beautiful Skagit County’ in Brooklyn.”

No matter what the market conditions, owning potato sheds gives Pioneer Potatoes a competitive advantage. “They give us control,” says Thulen. “We can pick our moments.”

When the market is poor, Pioneer Potatoes can hold its potatoes until prices improve. Many potatoes are held until March, because St. Patrick’s Day makes March “a really good sales month,” he says.

And circumstances can change quickly. Thulen calls last week’s 80-degree weather “weird” for May. Parts of potato-growing Idaho may have hit 100 degrees.

“I never want to wish it on anybody else, but some crazy weather you see on television can create a supply or demand surge,” he said.

So can drought, but the new interlocal agreement permitting seasonal transfer for surplus water rights from the Skagit Public Utility District to Skagit farmers may help keep potatoes from being stressed.

There is one piece of good news: the AgWest forecast predicted lower fuel and fertilizer costs for the 2024 growing season.

For now, the weather is great, and as of last week, one quarter of Thulen’s potatoes were in the ground. “It looks like we’ll have a nice run,” he says.

Of course, 2024 potato starts had been ordered before the AgWest forecast was issued.

“That’s farming,” says Thulen. “We are like gamblers. I don’t gamble but I do farm.”