We'll need to consider all power options to meet growing demand

For most of the last 10 years, electric consumption in Washington has been relatively flat or even falling. Innovative technologies like LED lighting and heat pumps have been replacing less efficient incandescent lighting and the older generation of HVAC systems. Moderate weather, on average, in both winter and summer has also flattened electric loads. Some Washington utilities have been concerned that falling demand would affect their ability maintain their systems without substantial rate ­increases.

However, electric consumption is rising again. Relevant factors include, but are not limited to, population growth, the introduction of electric vehicles, increased demand for data processing, and the use of electric-based heating systems to replace gas and propane-based systems.

Eventually, more electric energy will need to be delivered to our area to meet increased consumption requirements. This energy could theoretically be generated almost anywhere, e.g., via solar panels in the central Washington desert. Also, good rate design and technologies that enable consumers to control the time of day during which their devices draw current can help. Both rates and controls can encourage discretionary electric loads, like car charging, to be carried out in hours when the grid can most easily support the additional demand.

However, the western Washington grid has a limited capacity to import power from other areas. There are some transmission bottlenecks that restrain unlimited delivery of electricity to northwestern Washington especially. Solutions can include improving the actual transmission wires or adding transmission wires. However, implementing these solutions tends to be slow and expensive. It would be desirable, from both a cost management and reliability management standpoint, to increase the amount of low-cost generation, and/or low-cost electric storage, west of the Cascades.

Historically, western Washington has been further advanced in both low-cost generation and low-cost storage than most places, because of our reliance on hydroelectric generation from big dams. Hydroelectric power has long been used for large-scale, reliable generation. Hydro systems with dams can also be used for low-cost storage, by pumping water back above the dam during hours in which the grid is otherwise underutilized (off-peak hours). Pumped hydro storage remains cheaper and longer-proven than even the best utility-scale batteries.

However, hydro development on the scale that will be required to meet new demand isn’t possible. Even if there were no fish management issues, there simply aren’t any local, undeveloped river-based hydro resources that would provide the amount of energy needed. And, as I discussed a few weeks ago, tidal energy systems and geothermal energy exploration aren’t advanced enough yet for either of those generation sources to be used here on a large scale.

New coal or nuclear plants would cost more than a combination solar/battery plant, and it’s becoming debatable as to whether that would also be true of new gas plants. Solar/battery plants can be installed if space can be found for them. As the cost of solar continues to fall, this will happen, even here in rainy Washington, but solar plants require significant surface area.

In the near term, therefore, the remaining major generation resources, wind and waste-to-energy, and alternatives to electric generation, are likely to gain attention as probable sources of new energy supply in northwestern Washington. Over the next few weeks, I’ll discuss wind, waste-to-energy and intriguing options that may eliminate some need for new electricity entirely.