A look at electric car making history, then, now and next

Electric cars were introduced in the 1890s. They only had about 50 miles of range between charges, but they wouldn’t break your arm starting them and they didn’t make loud noises and scare horses. Internal combustion engine cars weren’t reliable, gasoline wasn’t widely available, tires on all car types were unreliable and roads were bad. As late as 1905, electric, steam and ICE cars split the market with about a 33% market share each.

Steam and ICE cars gradually got better tires, electric starters and better roads. The first Indy 500, in 1911, proved that an ICE car could run 500 miles! (Steam cars, more durable at the time, were banned.) Mass-market electric cars, with their ranges limited by battery weight, faded away, with the last one sold in the early 1930s.

Electronic variable-speed drives, which facilitate recovery of braking energy into batteries and thus extend EV ranges, became available in the 1980s. Batteries were improving, too. In 1989, the first commercial nickel/metal hydride (NiMH) battery was introduced. In 1991, Sony invented the lithium-ion battery, in sizes suitable for cell phones.

The GM EV1, introduced in 1996, used regenerative braking, but had a heavy lead-acid battery. GM changed to the lighter NiMH battery for 1999, but the decision to discontinue the slow-selling vehicle had already been made.

The very next time someone tried, electric cars started making a comeback. The Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, both introduced as the EV1 was being discontinued, were hybrids with NiMH batteries. Experience from long-term use of NiMH batteries in hybrids improved battery and regenerative braking technologies and proved battery durability.

Lighter-weight lithium-ion batteries fell in cost. Tesla introduced pure electrics again, followed by Nissan. The 2006 Tesla was rated at 244 miles between charges, up significantly from the 1999 GM EV1’s 142 miles. The range of the 2010 Leaf was only about 80 miles. Today’s Leaf, after 15 more years of battery improvements, is rated at 226 miles.

Tesla’s Roadster, in 2006, cost around $100,000. The current-generation Leaf has a suggested retail price of $36,000. Pure electrics with a similar (200 or so miles) range, offered by China’s BYD outside the U.S., aren’t built to U.S. safety standards, may be subsidized by the Chinese government – and are available in other countries for as little as $20,000. First costs of EVs are still falling.

Further battery improvements are on the horizon. Testing batteries for durability and safety requires that the batteries being tested actually be charged, discharged and recharged for thousands of cycles. Then, manufacturers have to set up manufacturing processes to make and install the new batteries.

Based on current testing, batteries which will enable mass production of EVs with ranges of 600-700 miles between charges, will be commercially available no later than the 2029 model year and possibly as early as 2027. Car model years change in September, so that’s two to four years from now.

Battery improvements for pure EVs can also be applied to hybrids, for those who want the certainty of ICE range. Plug-in hybrids are likely to gain share within the hybrid niche.

To remain a viable tourist destination, La Conner needs to anticipate more plug-in hybrids and more pure electric cars. Installing more public – and faster – chargers is critical. More on this next week.