Once exotic, it's almost 'Tuesday' for electric vehicles

From 1999 – 2001, I worked for Florida Power & Light. Part of my job was to figure out how that company should make use of energy technologies that were just emerging from the laboratory into commercial use.

Twenty-five years later, to borrow a line from Raul Julia in “Street Fighter,” some of the technologies I was studying “are Tuesday.” In other words, they’re no longer exotic. They no longer attract attention. They’re just what exists, barely worthy of comment. Compact fluorescent lights, just being introduced then, are obsolete already; lighting experts think they’ll be completely gone by 2030. LED lights, in pre-commercial development then, are Tuesday.

Technology introduction takes time, often about 30 years from laboratory to commercial success. We aren’t at routine “Tuesday” status for a lot of the things I was working on, but we’re getting close.

One of those “close” technologies is plug-in electric vehicles (EVs), with regenerative braking and lightweight batteries that can be recharged by plugging in the car. Hybrid vehicles, which combine internal combustion engines with traction batteries, are moving towards plug-in hybrids, like the Chevy Volt I drive. Plug-in hybrids improve fuel economy and lower fuel costs by enabling the user to “top up” the car with electricity. Non-hybrid battery EVs, which use no gas, are offering longer ranges and lower prices every year.

In the U.S., with our low gasoline prices (by global standards), and our perception that we might have to drive long distances, EV adoption has been slower than it has elsewhere. In Norway, with $8/gallon gas and most of the population within a 300-mile driving radius, EVs accounted for around 80% of the cars sold last year.

EVs are moving from being exotic toys, to mainstream use. Police forces are starting to adopt EVs for their lower fuel and maintenance costs, and better acceleration. We’re only a few years away, even in the U.S., from a combination of plug-in hybrids and pure battery electrics becoming “Tuesday.”

The pace of EV adoption will go up and down based on gas prices, long-range battery introduction speed and politics. Some politicians are trying to speed this up or slow it down, but that will only make a difference of a couple of years in either direction.

When (not if) battery range gets just a little higher, and costs get just a little lower, a major shift to EVs, like we’re seeing in other countries, is inevitable. The range-extending, cost-lowering battery technologies I described last week are no longer just lab curiosities; they’re close to commercial availability. And, EV costs are still falling.

I spend a lot of La Conner Weekly News ink on EVs because it’s important for La Conner to be aware of the inevitability and magnitude of the upcoming EV transition. Over the next few years, the proportion of new plug-in vehicles will increase, and will then increase even more, suddenly. That’s how technology adoption always works. If you’re interested in learning more, search the internet for the term “S-curve.”

To be ready, La Conner needs more public charging stations, and at least one “fast” charging station. People who are visiting need to be able to charge their cars while shopping. Without fast charging, we run the risk of being bypassed, like Radiator Springs in the movie “Cars.”