Clallam County, the last presidential bellweather

In mid-October in Port Angeles, the Clallam County Republicans hosted a "Candidate Oktoberfest" at an old grange hall: beer and brats for a few bucks, three free hours of stump speeches and as much cake frosted with the American flag as you could eat. Seats on the floor were full and pews against the walls were well-populated with hardcore Trump fans, as well as some independents and former Democrats who said they might vote Republican.

Three international journalists, including one from the U.K.'s Daily Mail, buzzed around the folding tables and chairs. They traveled here, to this small port town on the upper left tip of the lower 48, to gauge the energy. Clallam County in Washington is the only county in the entire nation where voters have chosen the same candidate as the electoral college for 40 years – in every presidential race since 1980. As Nov. 5 draws close, forecasters and media from around the world are looking to Clallam County to tell them whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris might win.

It's not just media, though – local residents are curious, too. That's why attendance at the Oktoberfest was so good, Clallam County Republican Chair Pam Blakeman said.

"There is an interest out there. They want to know, like everybody: What is a bellwether county going to do?" Blakeman said, chuckling. "They want to know what's going on."

The last true bellwether – that's what people call Clallam County. The last time voters there chose a loser was Gerald Ford in 1976. After that, the county only picked winners in the presidential election: Reagan, Bush senior once, Clinton twice, George W. Bush, Obama and Trump. Up until 2020, there were 18 other counties nationwide that matched Clallam's record. That year, they all went for Trump, but Clallam went for Biden. Clallam has now predicted the president longer than any other county in the nation.

Jeff Tozer, a sixth-generation resident of Sequim, is proud of the county's bellwether status.

"We've got it figured out. We're straight down the middle. You couldn't put a better pulse on the nation than setting foot in Clallam County," Tozer said.

Why is this county predictive?

Clallam is a funny place to look for the fate of the nation: Mostly mountains and forest, the county has less than 80,000 people and is far from any swing state. Clallam's only other claim to fame is Forks, home of the vampires in the "Twilight" series.

Former Clallam County Commissioner Ron Richards went hunting for why this county has managed to capture the mood of the nation in this specific way for this long.

At first, it's confusing, because in many ways Clallam does not reflect the nation: It's far whiter, older and homeowner-heavy than the country at large.

"I think there's an explanation for it," Richards said. Or rather, two: First, he points to the timber industry – spruce from Clallam was used to build some of the first airplanes in World War I.

"Between 1976 and 1980 – just coincidentally, between the last election we voted the wrong way and the oldest election we voted the right way, or the way with the rest of the country – one of our big timber companies laid off 400 people overnight," Richards said.

That was sort of the beginning of a long-term decline in the logging industry, which has been backfilled by everything from shellfish harvest and outdoor tourism to marine sciences and ocean-powered energy research.

"With a whole bunch of different industries, you aren't locked into one way of thinking," Richards said.

A harder-to-measure secondary reason Richards points to: local political engagement. Also in 1976, Clallam County recalled two out of three of their county commissioners and adopted a home rule charter – only the second county in the state to do that, after King – which allows Clallam's voters some independence from the state over how the county is run.

"This community has been really politically involved for a long time and they read and they write and they argue a lot," said Richards, who is himself a Democrat, but is in a political discussion group with Blakeman, the Republican Party chair. "We're real involved in what government should look like and we just pay attention a lot to what's happening."

Which way does Clallam lean this year?

The county's bellwether status is something that Sue Coffman – who moved to Clallam eight years ago from California – just learned of at the Oktoberfest. Coffman says she voted Democrat until the pandemic, but she disagrees with vaccine mandates. The idea that this county could predict the nation worries her.

"It makes me scared, because there's so many Kamala signs and crap around here. I'm just kind of like, 'Do they really not have a clue? Are they just listening to her giggling voice?'" Coffman said.

It's not just signs either. The numbers here look good for Harris: After she became the nominee, Democrats had a really strong showing in Clallam – well over 50% in many races, better than in the 2020 primary, when Biden won. But that might not tell us that much about which way Clallam will go in the general election, according to Ben Anderstone, a political consultant.

"In Clallam County, the general election electorate is considerably more Republican than the primary electorate," Anderstone said, "and a lot of this is the education gap you might have heard about, where more college-educated voters have increasingly voted Democratic, more non-college educated voters have increasingly voted Republican. In places like Clallam County, college-educated retirees especially are disproportionately represented in the primary."

This is a potential reason the county is shifting blue, despite being older – liberal retirees moving here. Anderstone says Harris could be more popular here than in the rest of the country and the county's bellwether status could be in jeopardy.

"Over the long run, I suspect Clallam County's bellwether status will fall by the wayside," Anderstone said. "But you know, there's no place that truly perfectly represents America. So as America changes, America's bellwethers too will change."

Richards, the former county commissioner, believes Harris will win both here and nationally, as long as there's no foul play. He thinks Clallam County will keep its bellwether status.

"Even though we can't do it forever, I think we're going to do it this year," Richards said.

Still, after our interview, he drove by the Republican Oktoberfest at the grange hall, just to see how many people showed up.

Story first published Oct. 25, 2024. Find at kuow.org.